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Every investor knows that "past performance is not indicative of future results." Yet many embrace century-long averages as a reasonable guess for future returns. [Read More]
Bear markets that are not followed by a recession have V shaped recoveries. The December bump, which barely qualifies for a bear market, is exactly... [Read More]
While the market has long periods of high returns, it has even more long period of low returns. Investors have seen entire decades delivering nothing... [Read More]
The U.S. economy, at its own peril, has been driven by cheap credit. [Read More]
The U.S. economy, at its own peril, has been driven by cheap credit. [Read More]
Let's make the very aggressive assumption that you can take 5% a year from your savings plan. If you have $100,000, that's $5,000 yearly or... [Read More]
The cost is a massive credit bubble that is already of biblical proportions. Its implications chill me to the bone. [Read More]
China is on its way to becoming the largest economy in the world. [Read More]
Remember, that debt just can't be pooped away. It is both money somebody owes and an asset on somebody else's balance sheet. We can't just... [Read More]
In the next decade, we'll see multiple inventions bring even greater changes. The impact won't be obvious instantly, but the change will come. By 2030,... [Read More]
The current recovery may continue for a couple more years, and trends in age reversal, banking, AI, 3-D printing and blockchain will help drive the... [Read More]
I'm back from Camp Kotok. This year, I quickly sensed a more upbeat mood. There were not that many that were wildly bullish, but most... [Read More]
Wealthy people often miss out on possibly great investments because they never hear about them. They, or their brokers and advisers, aren't in the "deal... [Read More]
Over the last two months I made the case for a coming worldwide debt default/restructuring/financial engineering. Call it whatever you want but it won't be... [Read More]
Jacquelyn Martin/AP The national debt is currently more than $21 trillion. Social security and medicare are not factored into this. When you factor... [Read More]
Let's look at the pension situation in some of the biggest economic powers in Europe. [Read More]
Tyler Evert/AP New Jersey and Kentucky state pension systems have the highest insolvency risk. Those states are not the only ones — the... [Read More]
Under our federal system, states can't go bankrupt. Lenders perversely see this as positive because it removes one potential default avenue. They forget that a... [Read More]
Tyler Evert/AP Public teachers all around the US have started strikes. Pensions have been an issue in all of them. This is among... [Read More]
There's been a wave of public school teacher strikes around the US. It started in West Virginia and spread to Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arizona, and elsewhere.... [Read More]
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